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One thing that confuses me is sentiment vs fundamentals. Sometimes sentiment is very high, everyone’s excited, media is full of bullish stories — but the price doesn’t follow, or crashes soon after. How do people balance that? When is sentiment a helpful indicator, and when is it just noise?
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That’s one of the trickiest parts. Sentiment can be a double-edged sword. What experienced observers do is use sentiment as one input among many, not the only one. When positive sentiment is paired with on-chain strength (active addresses, increasing transaction volume), shrinking supply on exchanges, institutional inflows, and favorable macro factors, then sentiment may signal a real upcoming run. If it's just sentiment without corroboration, it's risky. The article https://technoxyz.com/how-to-spot-a-crypto-bull-run-before-it-happens/ highlights this balance: avoid mistaking hype for momentum, by requiring multiple indicators to line up before assuming a bull run is near.